Who's the Favorite?
9/14/2009The Chase is On!
But . . .
Who's the favorite?
I don't think there's an obvious answer.
At the start of NASCAR's run for glory and the Sprint Cup, I find myself more puzzled to make a pick than in any of the previous five post-seasons. It seems to me to be more of a process of elimination than a pronouncement of enthusiasm.
And I'm not too sure that's a good thing.
Jimmie Johnson? Sure, you have to label him as the default favorite, based on three consecutive championships. Conventional wisdom is Chad Knaus is NASCAR's version of a Nobel Prize-winning chemist, the one who has figured out the Chase formula for success. But the No. 48 team performed poorly, by its standards, with pit-side mistakes at Michigan and Bristol that likely kept Johnson out of victory lane. Is the unity – and the magic – still there?
Jeff Gordon? Think about this stat: He hasn't taken the title since 2001 – almost impossible to believe. Terry Labonte went 12 years between his 1984 and 1996 championships. No wins for Jeff last season and, through Atlanta, just one in 2009. What really got my attention was poor qualifying runs at Watkins Glen and Bristol, two places we still expect Gordon to Go! Overall performance just seems off lately. And we know Jeff has back problems.
Tony Stewart? Everyone who HONESTLY thought Smoke would have pulled the sad sack Haas CNC group to the top of the standings, please step-up and collect your free Gene Haas bobblehead. Unless you're a Mark Martin fan, this is the story of the season. Is it really possible his team can keep it up? That's probably the most important question of the moment.
Mark Martin? The sentimental favorite, certainly, and has the plus of Hendrick team cars and experience. Would be a history-maker, and make Mark AARP's Man of the Year, if not Driver of the Year. Can the No. 5 actually become No. 1 in consistency over 10 races? The regular season hasn't proven that to be the case.
Carl Edwards? The pre-season selection to dethrone Johnson has no trophies and a broken throttle foot. Unless crew chief Bob Osborne can replay those great gas-mileage runs of last fall – or find outright speed – I'm taking a pass on Edwards.
Juan Pablo Montoya? Can someone please explain to me how one of the most aggressive drivers in the world became a points racer? Is it really possible just to flip-the-switch in the Chase, where I figure the champ will win at least three races?
Kurt Busch? Kasey Kahne? Could a Dodge really defeat Ford, Toyota and Chevrolet?
Denny Hamlin? Greg Biffle? Ryan Newman? Picks only for the longshot lovers out there.
Kyle Busch? I don't even know what to tell you about his yo-yo of a year!
Dale Earnhardt Jr.? Ooops . . . sorry.
The Chase champion?
????????????
Let's call it Mystery Theater.
NASCAR and ABC surely would love a 10-week long drama.
[ Next column: September 28 ]
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(I.N. Sider is the pen name for an independent motorsports business-person who has a quarter-century of professional experience working in almost every major North American racing series. The writer is not an employee of Valvoline or Ashland Inc. The column is intended to inform, entertain, and stimulate thought on the contemporary motorsports scene. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Valvoline or Ashland Inc.)
BackAbout I.N. Sider
I.N. Sider is the pen name for an independent motorsports business-person who has a quarter-century of professional experience working in almost every major North American racing series. The writer is not an employee of Valvoline or Ashland Inc. The column is intended to inform, entertain, and stimulate thought on the contemporary motorsports scene. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Valvoline or Ashland Inc.